Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 0.336551 0.382181 0.431706 0.489455 0.554952 0.626943 0.712096
2025-09-28 0.264630 0.323936 0.393226 0.480169 0.586399 0.712049 0.872097
2025-10-05 0.224172 0.293627 0.380342 0.496597 0.648510 0.840494 1.101961
2025-10-12 0.186207 0.259690 0.357253 0.496336 0.689765 0.949700 1.326416
2025-10-19 0.158528 0.234405 0.341092 0.502150 0.739553 1.077403 1.596309
2025-10-26 0.138524 0.216341 0.331779 0.515647 0.801830 1.231540 1.928426
2025-11-02 0.115249 0.189443 0.305165 0.498975 0.816404 1.317581 2.172877
2025-11-09 0.094923 0.163711 0.276174 0.473621 0.812866 1.374370 2.379673
2025-11-16 0.081282 0.146684 0.258463 0.463643 0.832468 1.470736 2.666406
2025-11-23 0.069827 0.131526 0.241495 0.452031 0.847007 1.559937 2.953949
2025-11-30 0.063356 0.124294 0.237324 0.462556 0.902627 1.729414 3.413340
2025-12-07 0.054426 0.110980 0.219916 0.445397 0.903275 1.796852 3.688678
2025-12-14 0.047776 0.101331 0.208543 0.439224 0.926456 1.914919 4.092019
2025-12-21 0.041812 0.092122 0.196665 0.430199 0.942601 2.021890 4.491822
2025-12-28 0.038744 0.088558 0.195859 0.444394 1.010127 2.245725 5.179925
2026-01-04 0.034840 0.082508 0.188810 0.443784 1.045137 2.405279 5.752700
2026-01-11 0.031828 0.078004 0.184494 0.448706 1.093620 2.602522 6.446799
2026-01-18 0.029610 0.075021 0.183203 0.460559 1.160468 2.852671 7.311058
2026-01-25 0.026054 0.068158 0.171657 0.445530 1.159194 2.940144 7.786769
2026-02-01 0.022558 0.060869 0.157944 0.422800 1.134756 2.966729 8.111060
2026-02-08 0.020194 0.056158 0.150012 0.413826 1.144760 3.082515 8.692672
2026-02-15 0.018051 0.051690 0.142028 0.403415 1.149229 3.184572 9.254867
2026-02-22 0.016968 0.050002 0.141230 0.412770 1.210138 3.448717 10.321922